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(a.k.a. were my earlier predictions right?)
When will it be safe to travel again?
1. You’ll need more than a passport
Prediction Status: Not yet true, but “inevitable”.
2. Recovery will be uneven
Prediction Status: True
There are specific corridors (sometimes called ‘bubbles’) of travel opening up. Our data for example shows an increase in flights between the US and China, and the US and South Korea.
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According to @travelperk data, the China-USA flight corridor is opening up more and more. For the first time since the beginning of April we have seen >100 flights/day. pic.twitter.com/t4I23h5Hw7
Avi Meir, TravelPerk
3. You’ll pack differently
Prediction Status: True
- Delta
- United
- American
- Eurostar
- JetBlue
- Frontier
- Amtrak
- Lufthansa
4. You’ll tick that little box every time
Prediction Status: True.
As more and more lockdowns kicked in, you can see the % of those booking flexible fares dropped, most likely because they’re more costly, sometimes as much as 170% more expensive. This shows how the traditional “flexible” fare doesn’t work for travelers, and how that’s even truer in this crisis. When I look at the data for our own FlexiPerk product - where you pay an add on of just 10% for a guaranteed 80% refund, we’ve seen a big increase in bookings. Indeed, FlexiPerk trips contribute over 5x (2.8% up to 15.28%) more of our total bookings than back in March.
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This shows shows that travelers want simple and affordable, flexible options, and when they get them, they increasingly use them.
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5. Society won’t like you when you’re sick
Prediction Status: Impossible to tell.
6. You’ll take the train before the plane
Prediction Status: True (Especially in Europe!)
Great news for my predictions, and even better for the environment. There are promising signs that governments are trying to capitalize on the COVID-19 situation to have a sustained positive impact on our environment. Angela Merkel has said as much, and the French government’s bailout of Air France stipulates that they must stop running flights on domestic routes with a train option.
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7. Travel will have different (expensive) seasons
Prediction Status: Unknown, but hopefully won’t come true
8. Air quality will be an advertised feature
Prediction Status: Not yet true
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9. The queue at immigration will be longer
Prediction Status: Not proven yet, but most likely true.
“We also believe that making metrics available to the public will restore confidence in venues where indoor social distancing parameters are being properly maintained,”
--Sam Kamel, CEO iinside
My Current Prediction Score:
Not yet provable with data, but almost definitely true: 2
Time will tell: 1
Impossible to tell: 1
Not true: 1That’s not a bad score, and with the confidence of at least a 66% hit rate, I’m going to make two new predictions:
New Predictions for Business Travel Post-COVID-19
- Travel will bounce back faster in Europe compared to the US. There are already reports of the Schengen area seeing an increase. TravelPerk customers are of course well-positioned to take advantage of this thanks to our unmatched rail inventory!
- People able to take a summer holiday in 2020 will take a domestic holiday (of course), and we’ll see an increase in people camping vs those staying in large hotels or Airbnbs.
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